If Apple is to gain more than 15%-20% world market share it will have to release OS X for the PC. Up till now  Apple’s OS only works on their own hardware. Indeed one of the reasons their computers traditionally work so well is because they produce their own hardware and design software to run on it.

However it is highly likely that other companies will always be able to produce cheaper hardware than Apple and since so many people out there like ‘cheap’ it seems unlikely Apple hardware will ever achieve more than 20% world market share. So if Apple want to push Microsoft from the top of the podium they will have to do what Microsoft did and sell their software to run on others’ hardware. Microsoft are looking weaker now than ever having lost much consumer loyalty with their much maligned Windows Vista OS. Many of these users are now switching to Mac. But are they switching rapidly enough? The main barrier is the price of the hardware and I can’ help feeling that Apple could gain more ‘switchers’ if it removed this barrier by releasing OS X for the PC. This window of opportunity will not last forever and Microsoft will eventually pull their socks up.

Now that Macs are running Intel processors the technical challenges of supporting third party hardware have decreased significantly. Indeed hackers of the OSx86 project already got OS X running on several models of PC. Given this I don’t believe it would be too challenging for Apple to officially release and support OS X on a selection of third party hardware. Over time the supported hardware would grow. Certainly there would be minimum specs and certainly only certain graphics cards would be supported. But is this really any different to Vista and its own support of third party hardware?

Many feel Apple would never make such a move because of the damage it might cause to its own hardware sales. I disagree. Apple could continue to produce and sell high quality hardware which, for the extra money,  would run OS X more smoothly than others. Again, is this any different to Vista? Some hardware simply runs Vista better than other hardware, right? And despite the fact Vista will (sort of) run on a $400 PC, people continue to buy $2500 PCs. Similarly even if you had the option of running OS X on $400 non-Apple hardware, many would still choose to buy more expensive and higher quality Apple hardware whether they need more speed or simply enjoy a smooth ride.

There is some evidence to support my suspicion that Apple will release OS X for the PC in the next five years. First, the move to Intel processors. Second , the porting of OS X apps like Safari to Windows. Third, the cross-platform cloud computing of Mobile Me. Fourth, the complete support for Exchange announced for iPhone 2.0 and Snow Leopard. And finally the fact Apple have done nothing to stop Psystar from selling their Mac clones. Apple is allowing Psystar to continue selling their clones because they are interested observers getting some free market research. Instead of suing Psystar like so many believe they will, Apple will before long sell them copies of OS X.

Perhaps even Snow Leopard will be released for the PC, if Apple are ready.

Five years is a long time in tech. Within those five years Apple will have made all the necessary preparations to release OS X for the PC. This includes tightening security in OS X, Quicktime and Safari, developing full support for core Microsoft technologies like Exchange and building in third party hardware support and hardware detection into OS X. Apple may also be waiting to steal Microsoft’s thunder just as they are about to release Windows 7.

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